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This position is responsible for developing the sales forecasts for Nestle products and presenting them to the Monthly Business Planning (MBP) consensus forecasting team for review / adjustment. Through a combination of market analysis and statistical modeling, projections of future sales are built. These forecasts are then discussed with the MBP team and risks against the financial plan are highlighted. This person will use statistical models to evaluate how proposed demand events may impact sales volume. The Demand Planner will provide specialized analytical support to Marketing and Sales.
• Analyze factors that impact demand for Nestle products (i.e., category trends / trade promotions / competitive products / seasonality / retail consumption / distribution channels), and build statistical models that quantify the business environment.
• Function as the primary expert regarding demand for Nestle products. Use this expertise to advise the consensus team regarding how various demand events impact sales.
• Present statistical forecasts to the consensus team. Explain business assumptions behind the forecast and methods used to quantify each event.
• In partnership with the Sales team, use promotion event post-audit data to analyze the effectiveness of trade promotions. Use the resulting insight to forecast the impact of future promotion events. Advice management regarding which promotion vehicles would be most effective under which circumstances.
• Develop statistical models of causal factors that have a strong correlation to demand for Nestle products (i.e., sales of cars four years ago drive sales of replacement tires today).
• Compare forecasts to financial budgets. Explain variances, note uncertainty and highlight risk areas to the consensus team.
• Analyze buying patterns of key customers and predict how they will react to incentives.
• Analyze market response to new products and use this to develop forecasts for new items not yet introduced.
• Work with Sales and Marketing to identify opportunities for controlling demand in the event of chronic factory capacity problems or inventory shortages.
• Regularly validate forecast splits down to the Item/DC/Week level. Adjust the short-term DC-Week forecasts as necessary to support effective deployment of inventory.
• Support supply planning by communicating key issues and uncertainty behind the forecast. Adjust forecasts mid-month when orders are not developing as expected.
• Other functions as required.
REQUIREMENTS AND MINIMUM EDUCATION LEVEL:
• BA/BS required. MBA/MS desirable.
• Coursework in a combination of 2 years Economics, Calculus, and Statistics desirable.
• Coursework in Marketing OR work experience in consumer goods Sales/Marketing desirable.
• Strong analytical aptitude with a proven ability to analyze/interpret data and build quantitative models of business problems.
• Excellent oral and written skills, organizational and time-management abilities, effective inter-personal skills, and the ability to work with personnel at all organizational levels. Flexibility and adaptability to the demands and requirements of a fast-paced environment with multiple demands and priorities.
• Excellent creative thinking skills with emphasis on developing innovative solutions to complex problems that may not have one clear answer.
• Ability to find errors in large data sets and identify significant data amid large volumes of routine information.
• Experience in consumer good Marketing or Sales helpful.
• Expertise in applying multiple statistical models to complex data sets, and identifying the best option for demand forecasting performance.
• Experience is calculating: price elasticity factor, channel penetration curve, market response coefficient, cannibalization ratio, product segmentation map helpful.
• Experience utilizing APO' Demand Planning software a real plus